MODEL VERDICT
Allient Inc. (ALNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $91.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $84.86 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $79.16 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $63.37 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $61.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $70.95 | -22.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $93.19 | +2.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $53.91 | -41.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $98.03 | +7.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $51.75 | -43.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $91.58 | +0.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $5.09 | -94.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $106.30 | +16.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $113.28 | +24.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $70.76 | -22.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $80.65 | -11.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.44 | -22.9% | 100% | 84 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 57× | 63× | 69× (Current) | 75× | 81× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $77 | $85 | $94 | $102 | $110 |
| Conservative (5%) | $79 | $87 | $96 | $104 | $112 |
| Base Case (6.8%) | $80 | $89 | $97 | $106 | $114 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $82 | $91 | $99 | $108 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.28 | 31.94 | 20.41 | 53.79 | 11.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.06 | 24.97 | 16.71 | 37.75 | 6.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.99 | 14.37 | 10.44 | 21.78 | 3.97 |
| P/FCF | 28.84 | 26.57 | 12.53 | 47.35 | 15.71 |
| P/FFO | 15.87 | 12.95 | 10.00 | 24.72 | 5.85 |
| P/TBV | 61.93 | 47.75 | 11.42 | 182.96 | 70.58 |
| P/AFFO | 23.55 | 20.59 | 13.09 | 40.49 | 10.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.25 | 2.82 | 1.52 | 5.77 | 1.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.36 | 1.31 | 0.76 | 2.00 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALNT's fair value at $70.44 vs the current price of $91.37, implying -22.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.19 (P10) to $90.32 (P90), with a median of $75.09.
ALNT's current P/E of 69.2x compares to the industry median of 40.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +69.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover ALNT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $76.80 (range: $70.00 — $80.00), implying -15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALNT trades at the 5940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5280.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.