MODEL VERDICT
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $40.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $37.96 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $37.62 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $37.56 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $36.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $28.34 | -29.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $48.83 | +21.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $37.01 | -8.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $50.79 | +26.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $28.34 | -29.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $42.90 | +6.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.18 | -7.7% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 | $50 |
| Conservative (5%) | $34 | $38 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (1.0%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.95 | 15.58 | 11.44 | 17.39 | 2.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.62 | 15.37 | 8.14 | 17.86 | 3.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.70 | 12.85 | 7.02 | 16.41 | 2.98 |
| P/FCF | 17.04 | 11.06 | 6.32 | 53.37 | 16.36 |
| P/FFO | 12.13 | 12.90 | 9.18 | 15.64 | 2.33 |
| P/TBV | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.51 | 2.00 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 12.84 | 13.85 | 9.46 | 16.34 | 2.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.05 | 1.07 | 0.91 | 1.20 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.16 | 3.31 | 2.47 | 4.06 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AUB's fair value at $37.18 vs the current price of $40.30, implying -7.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.05 (P10) to $39.73 (P90), with a median of $37.87.
AUB's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +42.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover AUB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $45.50 (range: $45.00 — $46.00), implying +12.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AUB trades at the 8840th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AUB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2290.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.