MODEL VERDICT
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $67.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $64.49 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $63.60 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.77 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $61.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $121.90 | +81.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 2 industry peers | $79.73 | +18.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 2 bank peers | $85.36 | +27.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 1 industry peers | $80.73 | +20.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $118.32 | +76.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $68.86 | +2.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.19 | +44.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $42 | $58 | $75 | $92 | $108 |
| Conservative (12%) | $43 | $61 | $78 | $96 | $113 |
| Base Case (18.5%) | $46 | $64 | $83 | $101 | $119 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $48 | $68 | $87 | $107 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.99 | 12.89 | 8.04 | 26.65 | 7.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.09 | 22.57 | 9.80 | 38.58 | 9.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.96 | 22.25 | 9.80 | 34.61 | 7.99 |
| P/FCF | 13.60 | 13.90 | 8.17 | 18.71 | 3.94 |
| P/FFO | 14.12 | 11.60 | 6.69 | 22.34 | 5.41 |
| P/TBV | 1.34 | 1.27 | 0.89 | 1.93 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 19.80 | 19.23 | 7.30 | 41.30 | 11.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.30 | 1.27 | 0.89 | 1.93 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.04 | 2.88 | 1.91 | 4.14 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BHRB's fair value at $97.19 vs the current price of $67.08, implying +44.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.79 (P10) to $107.12 (P90), with a median of $94.74.
BHRB's current P/E of 8.7x compares to the industry median of 15.7x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -45.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover BHRB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.00 (range: $74.00 — $74.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (14), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BHRB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7050.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.