MODEL VERDICT
Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. (BWMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $31.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $32.44 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $31.53 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $31.73 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $31.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $31.96 | +2.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $25.42 | -18.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $14.35 | -53.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $40.11 | +29.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $8.32 | -73.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $28.69 | -7.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $79.50 | +155.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $25.39 | -18.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $41.78 | +34.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $14.35 | -53.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $40.11 | +29.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.40 | +194.2% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $33 | $35 | $38 | $40 | $43 |
| Conservative (33%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Base Case (50.9%) | $41 | $44 | $47 | $51 | $54 |
| Bull Case (69%) | $46 | $49 | $53 | $57 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 313.29 | 102.91 | 45.23 | 1002.12 | 461.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 2239.64 | 64.12 | 36.40 | 6618.40 | 3792.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.76 | 20.66 | 14.82 | 38.51 | 9.80 |
| P/FCF | 34.91 | 30.88 | 16.54 | 64.04 | 20.29 |
| P/FFO | 22.97 | 14.79 | 12.88 | 36.67 | 12.49 |
| P/TBV | 10.72 | 7.61 | 6.12 | 21.54 | 7.31 |
| P/AFFO | 26.05 | 15.61 | 13.14 | 44.34 | 15.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.33 | 2.12 | 1.64 | 3.11 | 0.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 1.63 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWMN's fair value at $91.40 vs the current price of $31.07, implying +194.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.28 (P10) to $348.80 (P90), with a median of $144.50.
BWMN's current P/E of 42.6x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +116.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 313.3x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover BWMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $58.00 (range: $58.00 — $58.00), implying +86.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 2.8% is 3.5 percentage points above the 4-year average (1.3%), with a Z-score of +2.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$103. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BWMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23300.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.