MODEL VERDICT
Cartesian Growth Corporation III (CGCT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $15.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $11.90 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $12.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $2.30 | -85.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 1 industry peers | $22.25 | +44.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 1 bank peers | $29.74 | +93.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $1.79 | -88.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.58 | -11.6% | 100% | 45 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 51× | 56× | 61× (Current) | 66× | 71× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates CGCT's fair value at $13.58 vs the current price of $15.36, implying -11.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 45/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.10 (P10) to $16.61 (P90), with a median of $14.86.
CGCT's current P/E of 61.4x compares to the industry median of 9.2x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +567.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for CGCT.
The model confidence score is 45/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (8), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CGCT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.