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Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$90.43
→
Intrinsic$65.97
-27%
$43.30$65.97$109.07
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
CHD trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $90, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $43 → Bull $109. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $79 | $87 | $95 | $104 |
| 10% | $55 | $60 | $66 | $72 |
| 12% | $41 | $45 | $50 | $54 |
| 14% | $33 | $36 | $39 | $43 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($109) offers 21% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($43) implies 52% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 15% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 27% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.05B
Year 2$1.14B
Year 3$1.23B
Year 4$1.33B
Year 5$1.43B
Terminal$21.11B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$976.40MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.