Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$104.86
→
Intrinsic$73.89
-30%
$48.24$73.89$122.65
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
CHD trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $105, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $48 → Bull $123. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $89 | $98 | $107 | $117 |
| 10% | $61 | $67 | $74 | $81 |
| 12% | $46 | $51 | $55 | $61 |
| 14% | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($123) offers 17% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($48) implies 54% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 16% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 30% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.18B
Year 2$1.27B
Year 3$1.38B
Year 4$1.49B
Year 5$1.61B
Terminal$23.63B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.09BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.