MODEL VERDICT
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $96.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $95.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $96.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $94.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $95.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $48.78 | -49.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $60.31 | -37.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $64.67 | -32.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $86.29 | -10.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $70.72 | -26.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $96.76 | +0.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $48.50 | -49.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $45.63 | -52.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $64.77 | -32.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $86.17 | -10.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $80.16 | -16.5% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $80 | $89 | $99 | $108 | $117 |
| Conservative (5%) | $82 | $92 | $101 | $111 | $120 |
| Base Case (-0.6%) | $78 | $87 | $96 | $105 | $114 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $78 | $87 | $96 | $105 | $114 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.08 | 30.87 | 27.76 | 47.98 | 8.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.90 | 23.81 | 23.28 | 36.60 | 5.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.62 | 20.02 | 16.82 | 27.46 | 3.82 |
| P/FCF | 25.53 | 26.48 | 18.74 | 29.24 | 3.87 |
| P/FFO | 25.26 | 23.87 | 20.81 | 31.37 | 4.33 |
| P/AFFO | 30.84 | 27.57 | 23.77 | 43.72 | 7.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.38 | 6.07 | 5.12 | 7.91 | 0.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.10 | 4.07 | 3.30 | 4.93 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHD's fair value at $80.16 vs the current price of $96.02, implying -16.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $80.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.57 (P10) to $85.94 (P90), with a median of $77.60.
CHD's current P/E of 31.8x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +48.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover CHD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $99.60 (range: $82.00 — $112.00), implying +3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1370.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.