MODEL VERDICT
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $104.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $103.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $101.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $98.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $85.78 | Below threshold | +14.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $73.93 | -29.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $64.41 | -38.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $76.33 | -27.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $94.69 | -9.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $77.65 | -25.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $103.93 | -0.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $48.47 | -53.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $49.83 | -52.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $76.32 | -27.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $94.57 | -9.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.37 | -13.8% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $89 | $99 | $108 | $117 | $126 |
| Conservative (5%) | $92 | $101 | $111 | $120 | $130 |
| Base Case (-0.6%) | $87 | $96 | $105 | $114 | $123 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $87 | $96 | $105 | $114 | $123 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.08 | 30.87 | 27.76 | 47.98 | 8.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.90 | 23.81 | 23.28 | 36.60 | 5.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.62 | 20.02 | 16.82 | 27.46 | 3.82 |
| P/FCF | 25.53 | 26.48 | 18.74 | 29.24 | 3.87 |
| P/FFO | 25.26 | 23.87 | 20.81 | 31.37 | 4.33 |
| P/AFFO | 30.84 | 27.57 | 23.77 | 43.72 | 7.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.38 | 6.07 | 5.12 | 7.91 | 0.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.10 | 4.07 | 3.30 | 4.93 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHD's fair value at $90.37 vs the current price of $104.86, implying -13.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.15 (P10) to $94.53 (P90), with a median of $86.25.
CHD's current P/E of 34.7x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +37.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover CHD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $98.40 (range: $82.00 — $110.00), implying -6.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHD trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 410.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.