MODEL VERDICT
Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 40 analyst estimates | $30.55 | +52.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $31.96 | +59.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 33 industry peers | $32.36 | +61.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 34 industry peers | $53.87 | +168.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 37 industry peers | $31.29 | +55.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 34 industry peers | $79.33 | +294.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 44 industry peers | $59.35 | +195.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 44 industry peers | $46.96 | +133.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 33 industry peers | $32.36 | +61.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 34 industry peers | $52.52 | +161.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.69 | +87.5% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $18 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $19 | $22 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.57 | 10.95 | 8.02 | 15.47 | 3.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.52 | 7.88 | 6.03 | 13.23 | 2.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.81 | 4.32 | 4.06 | 17.76 | 5.43 |
| P/FCF | 22.67 | 6.23 | 2.75 | 70.22 | 28.53 |
| P/FFO | 6.12 | 5.17 | 4.21 | 11.97 | 2.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.11 | 1.16 | 0.47 | 1.72 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 10.49 | 9.58 | 6.73 | 14.68 | 3.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.83 | 0.95 | 0.30 | 1.19 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMT's fair value at $37.69 vs the current price of $20.10, implying +87.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.96 (P10) to $47.16 (P90), with a median of $38.36.
CMT's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (33 peers in the group). This represents a -37.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover CMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.50 (range: $22.00 — $27.00), implying +21.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CMT trades at the 1820th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1580.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.