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Americold Realty Trust, Inc. (COLD) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Americold Realty Trust, Inc. (COLD)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$13.42
→
Intrinsic$20.32
+51%
$9.76$20.32$40.34
Market implies 19% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests COLD could have 51% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $13, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (19%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $10 → Bull $40. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$28$31$35$38
10%$16$18$20$23
12%$9$11$12$14
14%$5$6$7$9

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($40) offers 201% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 34% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (19%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($10) implies 27% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$333.13M
Year 2$416.41M
Year 3$520.52M
Year 4$650.64M
Year 5$813.31M
Terminal$11.97B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$266.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is COLD stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

COLD trades at $13.42, within 10% of our $14.64 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $5.21 (bear) to $28.52 (bull).

What is COLD's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $267M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.63B net debt and dividing by 0.28B shares: Bear $5.21 | Base $14.64 | Bull $28.52. Current price $13.42 implies +11% to base case.

How is COLD's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.80B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.