...

Prologis, Inc. (PLD) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Prologis, Inc. (PLD)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$132.75
→
Intrinsic$176.07
+33%
$107.39$176.07$312.61
Market implies 14% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests PLD could have 33% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $133, the market prices in 14% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $107 → Bull $313. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$229$251$275$300
10%$146$161$176$193
12%$102$113$124$136
14%$75$83$92$102

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($313) offers 135% upside at 24% growth, 8% discount
  • 25% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (14%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($107) implies 19% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
Loading charts...

5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$7.56B
Year 2$9.05B
Year 3$10.84B
Year 4$12.98B
Year 5$15.54B
Terminal$246.31B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate19.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$6.31BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare PLD vs OStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is PLD stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

PLD trades at $132.75, within 10% of our $140.80 intrinsic value estimate. At 9.5% WACC and 19.7% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $83.93 (bear) to $224.17 (bull).

What is PLD's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $6.31B, projected at 19.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $30.18B net debt and dividing by 0.95B shares: Bear $83.93 | Base $140.80 | Bull $224.17. Current price $132.75 implies +10% to base case.

How is PLD's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 19.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($164.44B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.1x.