Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$13.39
→
Intrinsic$10.64
-21%
$2.38$10.64$26.30
Market implies 23% growth for 5 years
COLD trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $13, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (23%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $2 → Bull $26. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
| 10% | $7 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
| 12% | $2 | $3 | $4 | $6 |
| 14% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($26) offers 96% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($2) implies 82% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 21% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$303.38M
Year 2$364.05M
Year 3$436.86M
Year 4$524.24M
Year 5$629.08M
Terminal$9.26B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$252.81MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.