MODEL VERDICT
CoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc. (COSO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $26.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $30.96 | +14.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $30.62 | +13.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $37.63 | +39.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $30.99 | +15.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $27.39 | +1.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.61 | +17.3% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $19 | $23 | $28 | $33 | $38 |
| Conservative (14%) | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 | $39 |
| Base Case (22.0%) | $21 | $26 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $22 | $28 | $34 | $39 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.93 | 10.76 | 5.81 | 34.86 | 9.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.40 | 11.18 | 6.49 | 28.62 | 9.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.51 | 10.20 | 6.01 | 25.16 | 7.61 |
| P/FCF | 3.07 | 2.98 | 1.96 | 4.37 | 1.23 |
| P/FFO | 11.55 | 9.84 | 5.37 | 24.72 | 6.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.06 | 0.95 | 1.42 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 26.68 | 10.55 | 5.44 | 118.44 | 40.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 1.34 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.05 | 2.09 | 1.25 | 2.53 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates COSO's fair value at $31.61 vs the current price of $26.95, implying +17.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.90 (P10) to $34.20 (P90), with a median of $29.92.
COSO's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -12.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
1 analysts cover COSO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.00 (range: $30.00 — $30.00), implying +11.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COSO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 760.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.