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The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$112.98
→
Intrinsic$192.98
+71%
$122.42$192.98$333.17
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests DIS could have 71% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $113, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $122 → Bull $333. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$250$272$295$320
10%$163$178$193$209
12%$117$128$139$151
14%$89$97$106$115

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($333) offers 195% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($122) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$12.60B
Year 2$15.75B
Year 3$19.68B
Year 4$24.60B
Year 5$30.75B
Terminal$487.31B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$10.08BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is DIS stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

DIS trades at $112.98, within 10% of our $124.90 intrinsic value estimate. At 9.5% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $77.09 (bear) to $194.98 (bull).

What is DIS's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $10.08B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $36.33B net debt and dividing by 1.81B shares: Bear $77.09 | Base $124.90 | Bull $194.98. Current price $112.98 implies +9% to base case.

How is DIS's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($262.53B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.1x.