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Formula One Group (FWONK)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$90.50
→
Intrinsic$46.93
-48%
$31.55$46.93$76.16
Market implies 31% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 14% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $91, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (31%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $32 → Bull $76. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $57 | $62 | $67 | $73 |
| 10% | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| 12% | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| 14% | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($76) with 17% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 14% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($32) implies 65% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 31% growth expectations vs 14% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 48% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$563.34M
Year 2$645.02M
Year 3$738.55M
Year 4$845.64M
Year 5$968.26M
Terminal$14.25B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate14.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$492.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.