Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$106.05
→
Intrinsic$191.41
+80%
$120.85$191.41$331.60
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests DIS could have 80% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $106, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $121 → Bull $332. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $249 | $271 | $294 | $319 |
| 10% | $162 | $176 | $191 | $208 |
| 12% | $116 | $126 | $137 | $149 |
| 14% | $87 | $96 | $104 | $114 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($332) offers 213% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($121) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$12.60B
Year 2$15.75B
Year 3$19.68B
Year 4$24.60B
Year 5$30.75B
Terminal$487.31B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$10.08BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.