MODEL VERDICT
The Eastern Company (EML)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $47.11 | +150.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $30.67 | +62.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $35.78 | +89.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $56.41 | +199.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $42.33 | +124.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $76.86 | +308.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $67.96 | +260.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $35.78 | +89.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.33 | +156.5% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.93 | 15.23 | 9.79 | 28.02 | 6.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.53 | 10.85 | 6.17 | 15.75 | 3.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.00 | 8.72 | 5.00 | 11.90 | 2.34 |
| P/FCF | 12.02 | 12.24 | 6.88 | 16.96 | 3.91 |
| P/FFO | 8.78 | 9.59 | 5.10 | 12.35 | 2.67 |
| P/TBV | 4.75 | 3.38 | 2.10 | 11.12 | 3.62 |
| P/AFFO | 12.49 | 12.80 | 7.01 | 18.35 | 4.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.37 | 0.95 | 1.82 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.43 | 0.76 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EML's fair value at $48.33 vs the current price of $18.84, implying +156.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.45 (P10) to $42.36 (P90), with a median of $38.87.
EML's current P/E of -13.8x compares to the industry median of 33.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -140.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for EML.
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EML.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.