MODEL VERDICT
Escalade, Incorporated (ESCA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $17.88 | +26.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 19 industry peers | $16.10 | +14.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $20.94 | +48.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $39.13 | +177.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $30.24 | +114.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $55.34 | +292.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $13.73 | -2.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 24 industry peers | $37.55 | +166.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 24 industry peers | $18.20 | +29.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $20.94 | +48.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $39.10 | +177.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.82 | +68.8% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (8%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (13.0%) | $11 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.28 | 11.63 | 7.77 | 28.30 | 7.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.05 | 11.11 | 8.63 | 19.01 | 3.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.48 | 8.89 | 7.41 | 14.44 | 2.41 |
| P/FCF | 17.77 | 10.25 | 5.89 | 44.95 | 16.50 |
| P/FFO | 10.18 | 10.05 | 5.79 | 18.02 | 4.19 |
| P/TBV | 2.33 | 2.02 | 1.64 | 3.59 | 0.71 |
| P/AFFO | 12.25 | 11.80 | 6.35 | 20.82 | 4.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41 | 1.29 | 0.88 | 2.16 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.44 | 1.10 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESCA's fair value at $23.82 vs the current price of $14.11, implying +68.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.38 (P10) to $33.22 (P90), with a median of $25.77.
ESCA's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -32.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover ESCA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ESCA trades at the 2310th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESCA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4790.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.