MODEL VERDICT
Evommune, Inc. (EVMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $19.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $23.23 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $22.87 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $22.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $22.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.47 | -77.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $2.71 | -86.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.44 | -82.8% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVMN's fair value at $3.44 vs the current price of $19.92, implying -82.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.11 (P10) to $5.42 (P90), with a median of $3.72.
EVMN's current P/E of -9.1x compares to the industry median of 49.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -118.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover EVMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $48.40 (range: $40.00 — $55.00), implying +143.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVMN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.