MODEL VERDICT
FB Financial Corporation (FBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $52.69 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $52.68 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $51.30 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $54.12 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $54.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $31.39 | -40.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $41.18 | -21.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $57.54 | +9.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $31.39 | -40.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $48.30 | -8.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.24 | -16.0% | 100% | 84 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $44 | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 |
| Conservative (5%) | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 | $66 |
| Base Case (7.5%) | $46 | $52 | $57 | $62 | $67 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $69 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.14 | 15.51 | 11.04 | 23.25 | 4.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.74 | 10.69 | 2.71 | 15.45 | 4.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.90 | 9.73 | 2.56 | 14.20 | 4.20 |
| P/FCF | 19.01 | 18.62 | 2.16 | 43.08 | 13.83 |
| P/FFO | 15.37 | 13.81 | 10.29 | 21.97 | 4.03 |
| P/TBV | 1.94 | 1.89 | 1.40 | 2.50 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 15.48 | 15.31 | 10.61 | 19.39 | 3.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 1.63 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.92 | 2.97 | 2.15 | 3.43 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBK's fair value at $44.24 vs the current price of $52.69, implying -16.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.13 (P10) to $48.71 (P90), with a median of $43.84.
FBK's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 13.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +67.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover FBK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $65.00 (range: $65.00 — $65.00), implying +23.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FBK trades at the 9370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 210.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.