MODEL VERDICT
First Community Corporation (FCCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $26.83 | -13.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $24.04 | -22.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $25.57 | -17.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $23.54 | -23.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $26.83 | -13.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $31.35 | +1.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.39 | -17.6% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $28 | $31 | $35 | $39 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $29 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| Base Case (4.5%) | $25 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $36 | $40 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.80 | 13.26 | 10.19 | 14.90 | 1.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.71 | 11.58 | 8.18 | 16.04 | 3.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.39 | 10.07 | 7.45 | 14.22 | 2.84 |
| P/FCF | 22.20 | 11.44 | 2.76 | 80.70 | 29.21 |
| P/FFO | 11.02 | 11.28 | 9.07 | 12.53 | 1.19 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.05 | 1.62 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 12.31 | 12.56 | 9.51 | 15.92 | 2.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 1.28 | 0.93 | 1.41 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.61 | 2.75 | 1.88 | 3.16 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCCO's fair value at $25.39 vs the current price of $30.83, implying -17.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.57 (P10) to $27.06 (P90), with a median of $25.29.
FCCO's current P/E of 17.0x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +14.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
5 analysts cover FCCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.00 (range: $30.00 — $30.00), implying -2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FCCO trades at the 6720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FCCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.