MODEL VERDICT
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $19.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $18.75 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $18.55 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $18.34 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $17.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $16.86 | -14.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $16.56 | -16.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $15.60 | -21.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $26.90 | +36.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.18 | -18.1% | 100% | 71 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.79 | 11.47 | 7.05 | 22.36 | 6.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.85 | 15.64 | 11.19 | 64.39 | 20.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.29 | 13.93 | 9.86 | 44.42 | 13.05 |
| P/FCF | 87.45 | 8.74 | 4.88 | 552.86 | 205.29 |
| P/FFO | 10.89 | 9.97 | 6.19 | 15.70 | 3.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.43 | 1.35 | 1.14 | 1.73 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 12.14 | 10.45 | 6.58 | 19.50 | 4.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.01 | 0.87 | 1.27 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.52 | 2.75 | 1.96 | 8.43 | 2.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates HBNC's fair value at $16.18 vs the current price of $19.75, implying -18.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.67 (P10) to $18.12 (P90), with a median of $16.85.
HBNC's current P/E of -6.3x compares to the industry median of 14.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -143.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover HBNC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.50 (range: $20.00 — $21.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HBNC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.