MODEL VERDICT
Inventiva S.A. (IVA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $5.78 | CURRENT | -15.1% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $5.99 | Monitoring | -36.6% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $6.13 | Monitoring | -31.0% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $6.49 | Below threshold | -24.0% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $6.75 | Below threshold | -24.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 136 industry peers | $5.54 | -4.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 136 industry peers | $4.51 | -22.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.09 | +576.4% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.88 | 4.45 | 4.12 | 6.07 | 1.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.83 | 4.42 | 4.07 | 6.02 | 1.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 297.39 | 15.18 | 11.73 | 1320.39 | 574.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates IVA's fair value at $39.09 vs the current price of $5.78, implying +576.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.36 (P10) to $117.74 (P90), with a median of $35.80.
IVA's current P/E of -1.4x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (49 peers in the group). This represents a -107.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover IVA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.80 (range: $12.00 — $24.00), implying +173.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IVA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.