MODEL VERDICT
Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $46.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $44.84 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $44.76 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $43.56 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $40.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $14.49 | -69.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $43.36 | -7.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $80.19 | +71.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $95.21 | +103.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $86.45 | +84.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $56.63 | +21.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $78.57 | +67.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.66 | +10.4% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.02 | 15.13 | 11.37 | 28.12 | 6.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.50 | 10.15 | 6.70 | 18.68 | 4.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.85 | 9.43 | 6.08 | 69.43 | 24.62 |
| P/FCF | 22.34 | 25.19 | 10.83 | 28.60 | 6.72 |
| P/FFO | 12.87 | 11.76 | 9.80 | 16.16 | 2.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.43 | 0.74 | 3.17 | 0.89 |
| P/AFFO | 23.08 | 20.78 | 12.58 | 41.38 | 11.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.67 | 1.38 | 0.73 | 3.00 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.08 | 0.90 | 0.57 | 1.91 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates JOUT's fair value at $51.66 vs the current price of $46.80, implying +10.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.55 (P10) to $67.85 (P90), with a median of $55.57.
JOUT's current P/E of -14.0x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -143.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover JOUT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JOUT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.