Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)
Valuation Overview•Is Intuitive Machines, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 41/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
LUNR struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($210M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (34.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-34.8%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $186.7M | -7.9% | +34.7% | +36.5% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$26.2M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$37.5M | +70.6% | -135.2% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.25 | +84.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$64.6M | +17.3% | -53.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 25.7% | 1.9% | -4.1% | -2.8% |
| Operating Margin | -34.8% | -45.8% | -39.2% | -34.3% |
| Net Margin | -36.8% | -28.3% | -28.3% | -25.2% |
| FCF Margin | -40.1% | -50.3% | -39.3% | -30.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.04 | $-0.25 | -485.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.04 | $-0.04 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.04 | $-0.06 | -50.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.04 | $-0.06 | -50.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.06 | $-0.11 | -83.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.10 | $-0.20 | -100.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.08 | $0.04 | +150.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.12 | $0.02 | +117.4% |
Total return is +124.9% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +99.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +27.8% | +18.5% | — |
| 1Y | +124.9% | +99.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +38.8% | +19.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +18.8% | +6.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +9.0% | -4.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) valuation, health, and returns.
Intuitive Machines, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. trading near fair value (DCF: $19.13)
Intuitive Machines, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $19.13 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $42.00 (implying +83.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Intuitive Machines, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 41/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.8 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
Intuitive Machines, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.6% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +94.3% in the last 12 months.
Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -7.9% 1Y revenue growth and +84.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +34.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a -6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +83.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Intuitive Machines, Inc. include: -50.3% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.54x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.54x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.