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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$185.81
→
Intrinsic$123.02
-34%
$76.84$123.02$234.50
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $77 → Bull $234. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $179 | $193 | $209 | $226 |
| 8% | $106 | $114 | $123 | $133 |
| 10% | $74 | $80 | $86 | $93 |
| 12% | $56 | $61 | $65 | $70 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($234) offers 26% upside at 30% growth, 7% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($77) implies 59% downside at 20% growth, 10% discount
- Trading 34% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$76.07B
Year 2$95.08B
Year 3$118.85B
Year 4$148.57B
Year 5$185.71B
Terminal$3.79T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$60.85BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.