MODEL VERDICT
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $198.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $208.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $201.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $198.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $188.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $360.61 | +81.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $224.51 | +13.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $278.52 | +40.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $239.87 | +20.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $278.87 | +40.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $245.36 | +23.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $1103.00 | +455.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $148.56 | -25.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $148.06 | -25.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $278.52 | +40.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 13 industry peers | $293.65 | +48.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $378.62 | +90.8% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (38%) | $230 | $251 | $271 | $291 | $312 |
| Conservative (62%) | $270 | $294 | $318 | $342 | $366 |
| Base Case (95.9%) | $326 | $355 | $384 | $413 | $442 |
| Bull Case (129%) | $382 | $416 | $450 | $483 | $517 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 119.75 | 112.85 | 38.45 | 291.29 | 89.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 110.39 | 98.40 | 34.22 | 281.37 | 87.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 95.68 | 97.24 | 33.90 | 216.77 | 64.50 |
| P/FCF | 122.09 | 76.02 | 45.54 | 326.02 | 98.45 |
| P/FFO | 98.58 | 101.62 | 33.90 | 210.03 | 61.82 |
| P/TBV | 55.29 | 63.08 | 18.59 | 89.46 | 27.45 |
| P/AFFO | 121.51 | 110.90 | 37.22 | 304.43 | 93.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 43.91 | 43.73 | 13.92 | 77.93 | 21.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 35.22 | 35.45 | 13.76 | 54.98 | 14.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVDA's fair value at $378.62 vs the current price of $198.45, implying +90.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $378.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $283.69 (P10) to $425.31 (P90), with a median of $350.69.
NVDA's current P/E of 40.5x compares to the industry median of 56.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -28.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 119.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
79 analysts cover NVDA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $278.83 (range: $140.00 — $400.00), implying +40.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (58), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVDA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12460.0% to approximately $446. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.