MODEL VERDICT
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $177.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $189.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $182.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $188.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $184.86 | Below threshold | +2.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $264.78 | +49.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $153.13 | -13.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $221.05 | +24.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $198.85 | +12.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $246.74 | +39.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $193.07 | +9.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $854.19 | +382.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $66.99 | -62.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $68.91 | -61.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $231.44 | +30.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $203.22 | +14.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $321.30 | +81.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (38%) | $203 | $224 | $244 | $264 | $285 |
| Conservative (62%) | $239 | $262 | $286 | $310 | $334 |
| Base Case (95.9%) | $288 | $317 | $346 | $374 | $403 |
| Bull Case (129%) | $337 | $371 | $405 | $438 | $472 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 119.13 | 112.85 | 36.16 | 291.29 | 90.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 109.86 | 98.40 | 30.55 | 281.37 | 88.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 95.13 | 97.24 | 32.50 | 216.77 | 65.11 |
| P/FCF | 121.32 | 76.02 | 44.78 | 326.02 | 99.12 |
| P/FFO | 97.97 | 101.62 | 33.90 | 210.03 | 62.51 |
| P/TBV | 54.73 | 63.08 | 18.59 | 89.46 | 27.93 |
| P/AFFO | 120.87 | 110.90 | 37.04 | 304.43 | 94.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 43.43 | 43.73 | 13.92 | 77.93 | 22.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 34.88 | 35.45 | 13.76 | 54.98 | 14.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVDA's fair value at $321.30 vs the current price of $177.19, implying +81.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $321.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $232.04 (P10) to $378.06 (P90), with a median of $301.73.
NVDA's current P/E of 36.2x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -19.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 119.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
79 analysts cover NVDA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $271.00 (range: $140.00 — $400.00), implying +52.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (58), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVDA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15020.0% to approximately $443. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.