Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$177.19
→
Intrinsic$198.49
+12%
$124.01$198.49$378.29
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
NVDA appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $177, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $124 → Bull $378. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $288 | $312 | $337 | $364 |
| 8% | $170 | $184 | $198 | $214 |
| 10% | $119 | $129 | $139 | $149 |
| 12% | $91 | $98 | $106 | $113 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($378) offers 113% upside at 30% growth, 7% discount
- 11% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (22%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($124) implies 30% downside at 20% growth, 10% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$120.84B
Year 2$151.06B
Year 3$188.82B
Year 4$236.03B
Year 5$295.03B
Terminal$6.02T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$96.68BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.