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Nextpower Inc. (NXT)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$98.65
→
Intrinsic$128.58
+30%
$89.17$128.58$203.39
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NXT could have 30% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $99, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $89 → Bull $203. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $156 | $168 | $182 | $196 |
| 10% | $111 | $119 | $129 | $138 |
| 12% | $86 | $92 | $99 | $107 |
| 14% | $70 | $75 | $81 | $86 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($203) offers 106% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 23% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($89) implies 10% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Using 20% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$748.52M
Year 2$900.96M
Year 3$1.08B
Year 4$1.31B
Year 5$1.57B
Terminal$23.12B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$621.87MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.