Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$105.10
→
Intrinsic$128.81
+23%
$89.40$128.81$203.62
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
NXT shows 23% potential upside using 20% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $105, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $89 → Bull $204. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $156 | $168 | $182 | $196 |
| 10% | $111 | $120 | $129 | $139 |
| 12% | $86 | $93 | $99 | $107 |
| 14% | $71 | $76 | $81 | $87 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($204) offers 94% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 18% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (15%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($89) implies 15% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Using 20% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$748.52M
Year 2$900.96M
Year 3$1.08B
Year 4$1.31B
Year 5$1.57B
Terminal$23.12B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$621.87MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.