MODEL VERDICT
Nextpower Inc. (NXT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $119.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $121.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $111.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $110.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $117.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $62.67 | -47.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $111.62 | -6.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $83.73 | -30.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $117.76 | -1.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $124.13 | +3.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $120.08 | +0.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $17.95 | -85.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $84.82 | -29.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $64.90 | -45.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $76.07 | -36.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $114.85 | -4.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $634.76 | +429.3% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $103 | $113 | $124 | $134 | $145 |
| Conservative (5%) | $106 | $117 | $128 | $138 | $149 |
| Base Case (2.5%) | $103 | $114 | $124 | $135 | $146 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $104 | $115 | $125 | $136 | $147 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2014.12 | 25.10 | 10.84 | 6006.41 | 3457.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.70 | 19.15 | 8.61 | 40.33 | 16.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.30 | 18.75 | 8.54 | 39.59 | 15.82 |
| P/FCF | 33.02 | 20.91 | 12.74 | 65.40 | 28.34 |
| P/FFO | 32.51 | 24.88 | 17.32 | 55.32 | 20.12 |
| P/TBV | 16.50 | 10.80 | 7.42 | 31.29 | 12.92 |
| P/AFFO | 33.69 | 26.61 | 17.67 | 56.79 | 20.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.17 | 7.99 | 5.42 | 14.09 | 4.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.38 | 3.59 | 2.15 | 4.39 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NXT's fair value at $634.76 vs the current price of $119.93, implying +429.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $634.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $87.41 (P10) to $1652.89 (P90), with a median of $564.61.
NXT's current P/E of 34.6x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +43.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2014.1x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
28 analysts cover NXT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $124.00 (range: $81.00 — $142.00), implying +3.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NXT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 299980.0% to approximately $3718. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.