MODEL VERDICT
Nextpower Inc. (NXT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $105.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $119.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $116.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $117.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $91.17 | Below threshold | +33.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $105.10 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $112.20 | +6.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $97.73 | -7.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $82.92 | -21.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $170.89 | +62.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $77.44 | -26.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $13.46 | -87.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $91.31 | -13.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $78.43 | -25.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $97.74 | -7.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $84.48 | -19.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $840.71 | +699.9% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $92 | $99 | $106 | $113 | $120 |
| Conservative (5%) | $95 | $102 | $109 | $117 | $124 |
| Base Case (2.5%) | $92 | $100 | $107 | $114 | $121 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $93 | $100 | $108 | $115 | $122 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2014.12 | 25.10 | 10.84 | 6006.41 | 3457.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.70 | 19.15 | 8.61 | 40.33 | 16.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.30 | 18.75 | 8.54 | 39.59 | 15.82 |
| P/FCF | 33.02 | 20.91 | 12.74 | 65.40 | 28.34 |
| P/FFO | 32.51 | 24.88 | 17.32 | 55.32 | 20.12 |
| P/TBV | 16.50 | 10.80 | 7.42 | 31.29 | 12.92 |
| P/AFFO | 33.69 | 26.61 | 17.67 | 56.79 | 20.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.17 | 7.99 | 5.42 | 14.09 | 4.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.38 | 3.59 | 2.15 | 4.39 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NXT's fair value at $840.71 vs the current price of $105.10, implying +699.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $840.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $92.93 (P10) to $1658.17 (P90), with a median of $573.12.
NXT's current P/E of 30.3x compares to the industry median of 28.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +7.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2014.1x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
26 analysts cover NXT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $112.60 (range: $74.00 — $142.00), implying +7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NXT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 343710.0% to approximately $3718. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.