Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)
Valuation Overview•Is Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 59/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
OSBC demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 27.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $114.5M | +18.1% | — | — | +15.1% | |
| EBITDA | $43.5M | — | +7.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $28.8M | -5.8% | +6.0% | — | +18.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.54 | -13.4% | +2.8% | +12.0% | +13.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $42.6M | -2.5% | +8.2% | +39.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 78.1% | 80.0% | 84.9% | 85.8% |
| Operating Margin | 27.9% | 33.4% | 31.2% | 30.3% |
| Net Margin | 20.2% | 24.7% | 22.9% | 21.4% |
| FCF Margin | 30.1% | 32.7% | 31.0% | 29.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.52 | $0.49 | -5.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.53 | $0.44 | -17.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.53 | $0.58 | +9.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.26 | $0.53 | +105.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.47 | $0.48 | +1.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.43 | $0.45 | +5.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.42 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.48 | $0.44 | -8.3% |
Total return is +32.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +7.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.1% | +3.8% | — |
| 1Y | +32.8% | +7.8% | +1.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +18.6% | -1.3% | +5.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +13.2% | -0.7% | +8.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +12.5% | -1.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC) valuation, health, and returns.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +17.3% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $25.67)
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $25.67 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $21.92 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $23.67 (implying +8.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 59/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 8.1%.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. pays a 1.0% dividend yield, covered by a 15% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.6% buyback yield.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +18.1% 1Y revenue growth and -13.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +8.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Old Second Bancorp, Inc. include: -13.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.76x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.