MODEL VERDICT
Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. (PANL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $7.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.21 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $7.57 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $8.02 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $8.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $8.01 | +4.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $3.57 | -53.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $2.05 | -73.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $5.75 | -25.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $2.00 | -74.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $2.02 | -73.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $0.29 | -96.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $27.75 | +261.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $23.70 | +208.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $2.00 | -74.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $5.75 | -25.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.32 | -30.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Base Case (2.9%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.66 | 10.65 | 2.52 | 61.84 | 20.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.16 | 10.73 | 3.74 | 18.83 | 4.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.11 | 6.37 | 2.99 | 8.88 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 8.17 | 8.10 | 2.36 | 14.13 | 4.93 |
| P/FFO | 4.36 | 4.23 | 1.88 | 7.20 | 2.02 |
| P/TBV | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 1.03 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 7.22 | 6.40 | 3.20 | 12.86 | 4.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 1.01 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.75 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PANL's fair value at $5.32 vs the current price of $7.68, implying -30.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.15 (P10) to $7.26 (P90), with a median of $6.18.
PANL's current P/E of 25.6x compares to the industry median of 6.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +274.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover PANL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PANL trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PANL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2330.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.