MODEL VERDICT
PAVmed Inc. (PAVM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $8.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $9.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $9.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $9.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $9.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $9.46 | +10.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $0.00 | -100.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $7.36 | -13.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.35 | -13.8% | 100% | 48 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 130.16 | 63.55 | 12.15 | 381.38 | 174.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAVM's fair value at $7.35 vs the current price of $8.53, implying -13.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.96 (P10) to $12.58 (P90), with a median of $9.22.
PAVM's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 19.1x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -9.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover PAVM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PAVM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.