MODEL VERDICT
Peoples Bancorp Inc. (PEBO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $36.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $35.14 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $34.78 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $34.54 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $33.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $38.78 | +6.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $38.27 | +4.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $33.04 | -9.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $64.52 | +76.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $38.62 | +5.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $34.80 | -4.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.87 | +3.5% | 100% | 90 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $25 | $31 | $38 | $44 | $50 |
| Conservative (8%) | $26 | $32 | $39 | $45 | $51 |
| Base Case (11.6%) | $27 | $33 | $40 | $47 | $53 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $28 | $35 | $41 | $48 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.54 | 10.04 | 7.85 | 15.66 | 2.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.18 | 9.74 | 8.88 | 15.11 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.36 | 8.67 | 6.72 | 11.92 | 1.92 |
| P/FCF | 7.73 | 8.17 | 4.67 | 10.92 | 1.93 |
| P/FFO | 8.93 | 9.23 | 6.67 | 9.82 | 1.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.26 | 1.72 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 9.60 | 9.78 | 7.07 | 10.68 | 1.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.18 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.35 | 2.33 | 1.72 | 3.08 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEBO's fair value at $37.87 vs the current price of $36.60, implying +3.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.00 (P10) to $40.28 (P90), with a median of $37.60.
PEBO's current P/E of 12.2x compares to the industry median of 13.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -5.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover PEBO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $38.00 (range: $35.00 — $41.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PEBO trades at the 2990th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PEBO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 930.0% to approximately $40. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.