MODEL VERDICT
Rhinebeck Bancorp, Inc. (RBKB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $14.51 | +19.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $16.89 | +39.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.80 | +5.3% | 100% | 63 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.03 | 15.55 | 10.06 | 20.20 | 4.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.51 | 16.45 | 7.26 | 36.69 | 12.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.33 | 13.87 | 6.09 | 28.99 | 9.56 |
| P/FCF | 12.34 | 13.11 | 7.08 | 19.87 | 4.74 |
| P/FFO | 12.88 | 12.51 | 8.84 | 16.60 | 2.99 |
| P/TBV | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 1.12 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 16.50 | 16.46 | 10.21 | 25.72 | 5.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.77 | 1.10 | 0.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.32 | 2.60 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates RBKB's fair value at $12.80 vs the current price of $12.15, implying +5.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.63 (P10) to $14.57 (P90), with a median of $13.10.
RBKB's current P/E of -15.2x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -202.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for RBKB.
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RBKB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.