MODEL VERDICT
Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $17.54 | +155.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 23 industry peers | $62.29 | +808.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.68 | +288.9% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 11.07 | 9.95 | 4.49 | 19.90 | 6.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.85 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 2.53 | 1.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates RENT's fair value at $26.68 vs the current price of $6.86, implying +288.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.29 (P10) to $60.85 (P90), with a median of $30.87.
RENT's current P/E of -0.4x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (17 peers in the group). This represents a -102.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover RENT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $4.00 — $26.00), implying +74.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RENT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.