MODEL VERDICT
SB Financial Group, Inc. (SBFG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $25.50 | +17.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $24.45 | +12.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $20.37 | -6.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $23.17 | +6.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $25.50 | +17.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $26.58 | +22.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.74 | +0.3% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $20 | $23 | $27 | $31 |
| Base Case (3.6%) | $16 | $20 | $23 | $27 | $30 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $16 | $20 | $23 | $27 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.20 | 9.58 | 7.68 | 13.02 | 1.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.44 | 10.81 | 1.15 | 13.47 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.74 | 8.48 | 0.84 | 10.85 | 4.23 |
| P/FCF | 9.43 | 9.31 | 5.04 | 16.99 | 3.85 |
| P/FFO | 7.71 | 7.22 | 5.72 | 9.77 | 1.55 |
| P/TBV | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.56 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 8.61 | 8.15 | 6.35 | 11.20 | 1.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.85 | 1.15 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.40 | 2.50 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBFG's fair value at $21.74 vs the current price of $21.67, implying +0.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.76 (P10) to $24.12 (P90), with a median of $22.40.
SBFG's current P/E of 12.6x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -15.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for SBFG.
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SBFG trades at the 2590th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SBFG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.