MODEL VERDICT
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $18.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $16.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $19.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $20.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $21.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $52.78 | +190.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $0.52 | -97.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $0.03 | -99.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $52.75 | +190.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.28 | +66.6% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $22 | $25 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $15 | $19 | $22 | $26 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 | $27 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $16 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.66 | 2.71 | 2.27 | 21.00 | 10.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.19 | 1.80 | 1.10 | 4.05 | 1.31 |
| P/S Ratio | 561.10 | 3.96 | 1.57 | 3349.01 | 1365.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPIR's fair value at $30.28 vs the current price of $18.18, implying +66.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.01 (P10) to $62.24 (P90), with a median of $52.87.
SPIR's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 32.8x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -65.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover SPIR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.25 (range: $9.00 — $22.00), implying -5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPIR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.