...

AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 (TBB) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 (TBB)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$22.67
→
Intrinsic$31.22
+38%
$14.72$31.22$64.07
Market implies 3% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests TBB could have 38% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $23, the market prices in only 3% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $15 → Bull $64. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$42$48$54$61
10%$23$27$31$36
12%$13$16$19$22
14%$7$9$12$14

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($64) offers 183% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
  • 27% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (3%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($15) implies 35% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$19.99B
Year 2$21.59B
Year 3$23.31B
Year 4$25.18B
Year 5$27.19B
Terminal$430.93B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$18.51BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare TBB vs NEEStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TBB stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

TBB trades at $22.67 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $31.22, implying +39% upside. At a 9.5% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of TBB's future cash flows. The bear case ($16.72) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is TBB's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $18.51B, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $137.63B net debt and dividing by 7.20B shares: Bear $16.72 | Base $31.22 | Bull $51.29. Current price $22.67 implies +39% to base case.

How is TBB's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($362.54B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.6x.