MODEL VERDICT
AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66 (TBB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $22.61 | Below threshold | -1.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 29 industry peers | $45.10 | +98.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 44 industry peers | $26.74 | +17.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 27 industry peers | $29.40 | +29.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 39 analyst estimates | $23.34 | +2.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 40 industry peers | $26.73 | +17.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 33 industry peers | $14.22 | -37.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 47 industry peers | $28.26 | +24.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $45.09 | +98.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.85 | +40.4% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $16 | $22 | $28 | $35 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $16 | $23 | $29 | $36 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $17 | $23 | $30 | $37 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $17 | $24 | $31 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.86 | 11.90 | 7.33 | 16.38 | 3.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.69 | 13.37 | 8.77 | 104.67 | 38.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.42 | 6.99 | 6.30 | 23.48 | 6.24 |
| P/FCF | 10.44 | 8.32 | 6.72 | 19.82 | 4.66 |
| P/FFO | 7.16 | 5.16 | 3.74 | 17.32 | 4.72 |
| P/AFFO | 17.00 | 13.36 | 7.29 | 33.47 | 10.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.97 | 1.55 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.31 | 1.36 | 1.08 | 1.46 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates TBB's fair value at $31.85 vs the current price of $22.69, implying +40.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.46 (P10) to $42.89 (P90), with a median of $34.64.
TBB's current P/E of 7.5x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (29 peers in the group). This represents a -49.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover TBB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.29 (range: $17.00 — $24.00), implying -6.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.4% is 10.2 percentage points above the 5-year average (7.2%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$15. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TBB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3420.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.