Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$22.69
→
Intrinsic$84.63
+273%
$50.29$84.63$152.86
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests TBB could have 273% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $23, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $50 → Bull $153. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $113 | $123 | $134 | $147 |
| 10% | $70 | $77 | $85 | $93 |
| 12% | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 |
| 14% | $34 | $38 | $42 | $47 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($153) offers 574% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($50) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$24.30B
Year 2$30.38B
Year 3$37.97B
Year 4$47.47B
Year 5$59.33B
Terminal$940.19B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$19.44BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.