MODEL VERDICT
Taboola.com Ltd. (TBLA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.58 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.88 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $8.51 | +79.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $6.89 | +45.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $2.69 | -43.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $6.35 | +34.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $2.99 | -36.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $7.20 | +51.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $17.38 | +266.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $16.29 | +243.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $2.69 | -43.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $6.38 | +34.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.13 | +71.5% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (5%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| Base Case (-37.2%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (-50%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 26.40 | 11.81 | 9.52 | 53.02 | 21.65 |
| P/FCF | 34.58 | 28.71 | 8.40 | 84.62 | 31.37 |
| P/FFO | 42.04 | 12.90 | 9.88 | 103.64 | 43.79 |
| P/TBV | 5.00 | 4.17 | 2.91 | 8.75 | 2.57 |
| P/AFFO | 17.66 | 17.67 | 15.11 | 20.21 | 2.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.57 | 1.42 | 0.94 | 2.70 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 1.04 | 0.56 | 1.89 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates TBLA's fair value at $8.13 vs the current price of $4.74, implying +71.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.47 (P10) to $10.40 (P90), with a median of $8.28.
TBLA's current P/E of 36.5x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +76.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover TBLA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.55 (range: $2.25 — $9.00), implying +17.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TBLA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.