MODEL VERDICT
Transcat, Inc. (TRNS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $91.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $87.72 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $84.52 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $73.02 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $75.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $40.53 | -55.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $68.67 | -24.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $22.81 | -75.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $48.10 | -47.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $22.72 | -75.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $42.54 | -53.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $151.70 | +66.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $148.51 | +62.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $22.38 | -75.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $46.62 | -48.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.25 | -25.2% | 100% | 68 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 134× | 147× | 160× (Current) | 173× | 186× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $78 | $85 | $93 | $101 | $108 |
| Conservative (5%) | $80 | $88 | $96 | $104 | $111 |
| Base Case (-11.2%) | $68 | $74 | $81 | $88 | $94 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $65 | $71 | $77 | $84 | $90 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.48 | 61.62 | 29.50 | 99.53 | 23.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.73 | 45.13 | 25.37 | 54.12 | 12.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.54 | 22.23 | 15.48 | 31.96 | 6.82 |
| P/FCF | 48.76 | 47.22 | 15.38 | 93.95 | 26.71 |
| P/FFO | 24.53 | 25.03 | 16.20 | 33.58 | 7.89 |
| P/TBV | 43.65 | 17.73 | 9.17 | 112.00 | 46.48 |
| P/AFFO | 45.13 | 44.30 | 29.28 | 65.64 | 15.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.26 | 3.56 | 1.76 | 8.14 | 2.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.47 | 2.35 | 1.38 | 3.52 | 1.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRNS's fair value at $68.25 vs the current price of $91.26, implying -25.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.53 (P10) to $66.52 (P90), with a median of $57.34.
TRNS's current P/E of 160.1x compares to the industry median of 40.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +300.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 58.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
10 analysts cover TRNS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $123.60 (range: $94.00 — $160.00), implying +35.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRNS trades at the 9290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (58.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRNS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1890.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.