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United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$8.77
→
Intrinsic$88.23
+906%
$64.43$88.23$133.37
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UMC could have 906% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $9, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $64 → Bull $133. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $105 | $113 | $121 | $129 |
| 10% | $78 | $83 | $88 | $94 |
| 12% | $63 | $66 | $70 | $75 |
| 14% | $53 | $56 | $59 | $62 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($133) offers 1421% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($64) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$6.66B
Year 2$8.33B
Year 3$10.41B
Year 4$13.01B
Year 5$16.26B
Terminal$239.27B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.33BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.