Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$10.44
→
Intrinsic$746.02
+7046%
$512.01$746.02$1,190.00
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UMC could have 7046% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $10, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $512 → Bull $1190. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $915 | $988 | $1065 | $1147 |
| 10% | $644 | $693 | $746 | $802 |
| 12% | $494 | $531 | $570 | $612 |
| 14% | $399 | $428 | $459 | $491 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1190) offers 11298% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($512) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$65.51B
Year 2$81.88B
Year 3$102.35B
Year 4$127.94B
Year 5$159.93B
Terminal$2.35T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$52.40BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.