MODEL VERDICT
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.79 | Pending | +14.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $19.79 | +89.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $1264.51 | +12012.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $753.36 | +7116.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $1054.66 | +10002.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $957.71 | +9073.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $1025.30 | +9720.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $1272.55 | +12089.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $781.05 | +7381.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $739.67 | +6985.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $788.78 | +7455.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $1077.83 | +10224.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $693.06 | +6538.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $312 | $351 | $390 | $429 | $468 |
| Conservative (27%) | $340 | $382 | $425 | $467 | $510 |
| Base Case (41.9%) | $379 | $427 | $474 | $521 | $569 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $418 | $471 | $523 | $575 | $628 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.19 | 0.82 | 0.22 |
| P/FCF | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 3.08 | 1.10 |
| P/FFO | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| P/TBV | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/AFFO | 1.15 | 0.48 | 0.18 | 3.66 | 1.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Div Yield | 1.52 | 1.83 | 0.46 | 2.29 | 0.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates UMC's fair value at $693.06 vs the current price of $10.44, implying +6538.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $693.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $508.89 (P10) to $818.03 (P90), with a median of $663.17.
UMC's current P/E of 19.6x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -56.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover UMC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.60 (range: $8.60 — $8.60), implying -17.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UMC trades at the 1280th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UMC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1300.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.