MODEL VERDICT
Urban One, Inc. (UONE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $10.02 | CURRENT | -0.3% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $11.38 | Monitoring | -42.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $8.23 | -17.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $0.58 | -94.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $4.63 | -53.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $8.96 | -10.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $8.28 | -17.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.59 | +55.6% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 322.83 | 65.49 | 7.11 | 1007.50 | 425.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.53 | 27.14 | 19.73 | 81.01 | 22.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.89 | 18.64 | 10.52 | 83.02 | 27.50 |
| P/FCF | 37.55 | 27.25 | 18.14 | 68.71 | 21.69 |
| P/FFO | 22.78 | 24.02 | 4.59 | 39.47 | 12.52 |
| P/AFFO | 32.03 | 30.21 | 4.70 | 69.69 | 23.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.46 | 6.55 | 4.08 | 9.50 | 1.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.72 | 4.24 | 1.62 | 5.72 | 1.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates UONE's fair value at $15.59 vs the current price of $10.02, implying +55.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.90 (P10) to $15.93 (P90), with a median of $11.31.
UONE's current P/E of -4.5x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -129.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 322.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for UONE.
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UONE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.