MODEL VERDICT
USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. (USCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $19.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $18.79 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $18.54 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $18.62 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $17.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $19.23 | -1.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $11.89 | -39.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $13.80 | -29.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $12.71 | -35.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $19.22 | -1.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $22.12 | +13.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.43 | -10.9% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (17%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (26.0%) | $18 | $21 | $25 | $28 | $31 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.82 | 14.24 | 12.20 | 14.58 | 1.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.17 | 10.05 | 9.32 | 18.10 | 3.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.88 | 9.69 | 9.09 | 17.62 | 3.67 |
| P/FCF | 10.10 | 10.42 | 7.95 | 12.80 | 1.93 |
| P/FFO | 12.99 | 12.73 | 11.82 | 14.08 | 0.98 |
| P/TBV | 1.44 | 1.35 | 1.26 | 1.63 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 13.70 | 14.11 | 12.21 | 15.19 | 1.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.44 | 1.35 | 1.26 | 1.63 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.88 | 2.44 | 2.22 | 4.29 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates USCB's fair value at $17.43 vs the current price of $19.55, implying -10.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.28 (P10) to $18.37 (P90), with a median of $17.32.
USCB's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +1.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover USCB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying +22.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: USCB trades at the 6640th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that USCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (18.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 80.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.