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United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$471.99
→
Intrinsic$816.19
+73%
$564.89$816.19$1,292.97
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UTHR could have 73% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $472, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $565 → Bull $1293. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $998 | $1076 | $1159 | $1247 |
| 10% | $706 | $760 | $816 | $876 |
| 12% | $545 | $585 | $627 | $672 |
| 14% | $444 | $475 | $508 | $543 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1293) offers 174% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (10%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($565) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.35B
Year 2$1.69B
Year 3$2.11B
Year 4$2.64B
Year 5$3.30B
Terminal$48.52B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.08BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.